Indian Railway Finance Corp

The expected move (1 standard deviation) for IRFC is derived from the at-the-money implied volatility of 4492.0% for the 2026-05-26 expiry. This implies a ±₹829 move by expiry — the market assigns roughly 68% probability that IRFC finishes within this range. The probability distribution chart shows the full lognormal curve implied by current options pricing.

An options probability distribution is a curve showing the market-implied likelihood of the underlying finishing at each price level by expiry. It is derived from the implied volatility of at-the-money options using a lognormal model. The PDF (probability density function) shows the relative likelihood at each price, while the CDF (cumulative distribution function) shows the probability of finishing below a given level. StrikeVue plots both for IRFC with ±1σ, ±2σ and ±3σ bands.

The bell-shaped PDF curve peaks at the most probable expiry price for IRFC. The dashed sigma lines show standard deviation bands: ±1σ contains ~68% of outcomes, ±2σ contains ~95%, and ±3σ contains ~99.7%. Hover over any price on the chart to see the exact probability of IRFC finishing above or below that level by expiry. The CDF view shows cumulative probability — useful for evaluating option breakeven probabilities.

The current at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility for IRFC is 4492.0%, with an IV Rank of 0 out of 100. This low IV Rank means options are cheap relative to their historical range — a favourable environment for premium buyers like Long Straddles.